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everything flows and natural resources coming flows and they’ve been flowing for quite some style in quite some time in a resilient way what is resilient well after a shock they can go back to a crib room until the big shock came in what’s the big show it’s us it’s people here we go and when we came in sustainability when we came in resilient went out the closet why because we started polluting we started changing the climate we started losing biodiversity we started having problems with all of our resources and the big issue is that depletion of these resources is not really reversible so can we go back can we go back to a resilient way and mode of living let’s see if we can go back and I’m trying to follow my slides because I want our choice to come in and here is our choice here is our choice we are here and we can either go or continue to be on our self-destructing way or choose to become sustainable or choose to go back to a situation where the shock of ourselves does not destroy our nature and in consequence ourselves we need to get out of the self-destructing acrylic rotation the we decide that we want to do it well instead Chamber 2015 I was in lovely New York myself and a bunch of hundreds of scientists together with some less important people 193 heads of states and we renewed our commitment to becoming sustainable to use our natural resources that stain apply in a way that allows the current generation to meet its own needs without reducing the ability of future generations to meet their own needs and these new commitments come commitment comes in agenda 2030 of the United Nations and these agenda 2030 talks about many things most of them about sustaining the Vera burn clean air clean energy good water oceans are not polluted and viable and some less famous people than us are also embracing the idea and they are diffusing it when they are getting their literal scars so let’s see if we are gonna make it if we’re gonna be sustainable can we be sustainable and why am I here am i economies right why am I here what does economics has to do with all this well economics is about allocating scarce resources stocks and flows of resources over time and over space and other people and allocating these resources in a way that maximize the social welfare and in economics there exist these creatures that are called natural resource environmental and energy economics like me that are trying to model the interaction between people and nature they are trying to understand what benefits people get from nature how to buy you this benefits and develop instruments development paths policies that allow us to have an interaction between nature that is not self-destructing that is not catastrophic for the people for the Society for the environment over space and over time so we are trying to maximize social welfare and so what is social welfare well is composed of value

value the people place on goods and services and flows of natural resources and flows of services that come from our ecosystems so it’s quite tricky to do a sustainable plan of environmental resources as a sustainable plan of the interaction of people with environment why because you have to value this we are species that are called ecosystem services and this ecosystem services come in different categories and some are quite obvious provisioning services the water we drink the food we eat and so on but some are less obvious like regulating services from the environment to the people that regulate the flows of natural resources on which we base our living and cultural services that are very important for the sustainment of our societies and our social networks and also happy that services all our biodiversity that really keeps the the ecosystems in a functioning form that can support life on Earth so our job is to find the value for these ecosystem services and it’s difficult because some are obvious but are not exchanged and some others are not obvious so information is one crucial other flow that comes in the future that’s why you’re not the Decapolis doing a good job we need to know that we consume this services because these services are coming to us without we without been able people are not really able to understand the flow of these services and to understand how they are important for their own sustainment so let’s see how we think in economics and most of you I expect will feel familiar with all this we have markets and markets make value explicit why they make value explicit because they’re the supply of a good of a flow of a stock is explicit so you can get a particular quantity at a particular price and you also have the Entenmann’s that is also explicit you are willing to pay something in order to get the opportunity to come you more experience or use as an input in your production a particular quantity of a natural resource in our example but what is very very difficult for natural resources we cannot get this little mr. price we cannot see him we cannot see him anywhere why because this applies so difficult to calculate what is our supply of water is the water in the river is the water in the sea that we can design innate what quality of God polluted clean water water in the aquifer how do you sum all this up and how do you make them available what kind of technology do you need and then demand is hidden it’s hidden why because these resources are open access they are open access you can consume them you can have your willingness to pay for this good and nobody can prevent you from depleting them then the result no market value becomes non explicit price is not there everybody consumes above they are the capacity that is optimal that they are actually valuing the particular good at service and at the end of the day we lose everything we lose everything in a very irreversible and detrimental way why because we offer exploit we get less pressured pleasure lets you less utility less happiness from each unit we exploit because we consume more quantity that we should and at the end of the toy day we live no resource in nature for our

neighbor for future generations for other countries and so on definite miss allocation and here comes what we do what I’ve been doing for the last 20 years with passion all over the world we are trying to get mr. Prize for natural resources we are trying to value how much people benefit from using ecosystem services obvious and non-obvious ecosystem services we are trying to retrieve the value of our resources and they make this value central in the allocation of these resources and make society understand this value pay for it and use it optimally like any other good that is scarce and this code is not only scarce it is irreversibly scarce if you lose it you cannot reproduce it at least exactly the same form as it is today and value is a tricky thing to actually calculate why because we have the direct value which is provisioning services and sometimes it is also we traded in markets water food fish that I did eat and drink but also indirect use values regulating the flow of services of of nature and then option value willingness to pay in order to sustain the choice in the future shoot the resource become scarce polluted or that man becomes speaker because of increased population and not only we have their use values but there but people are actually willing to pay for non using the environment but preserving it for the future as a request value for future generations and also because they understand and it’s the intrinsic value for the continuation of the existence of the environment and let me tell you is tricky to try to measure all this it’s tricky to measure it is tricky to make it explicit is very difficult to construct instruments and development plans that integrate this value and make people pay make society understand and pay recognize this value and allocating resources by integrating this understanding of this value into their allocation and grow into their allocation of resources and into their management plans and into their development plans the countries the wealth of the whole so we are looking for lady value for every resource for every revision for every special unit for every point in time and infinity we are talking about infinite time horizons there is no end to this game we need nature to be there forever always we cannot be there this interaction cannot end it’s a challenging opportunity and I say opportunity because you should come to my lectures and you will get excited and interested and invest in this kind of research so if you can’t measure it you can’t improve it so we need to measure late value and integrate it in our analysis and management plans and thank God for me my research group other environmental economies been working for the last 50 years trying to develop methods that allow you to retrieve the hidden value of ecosystem services and mathematically model the interaction between ecosystem services and society and they economy even financial markets to surveys in order to retrieve attitude and awareness and how people think and also influence awareness and increase the diffusion of information about all this very complicated a quite scientific issues and then model it econometric Lee and applied the econometric model to different case that is in order to come

up with the value and then construct a plan construct and plan or how to allocate resources over time over space over people and we can do this seems easy right no yes well not very easy information hungry science hungry but we are making lots of progress and basically if we want to him ethically show what we do we have layers of information on nature and society and technology and economy and we use all these layers and the different climate change scenarios and socio-economic scenarios in order to retrieve the value of the different natural resources over time and of course this value as we forecast it over time is going to be quite loaded with uncertainty because as you move from today until tomorrow and after a hundred years and after 400 years and to then finally the information that you need in order to come up with a distribution of an optimal distribution that maximize the social welfare after integrating all these layers of information is huge and uncertainty increases so it’s northern is the task we need to become precautionary we need to make sure that we understand that the future ahead is becoming more and more uncertain and our analysis all flows into a cost-benefit analysis and decides on some management plans but these management plans need to be revisited and revised and refined so he said a constant struggle is that of constant updating is a constant challenge but it can be done let me show you an example we’ve been trying to construct optimal a multi-use platforms for managing oceans and this was 20 million let’s say project with three sub categories from the European Union that we court in 80 try understand where to locate multi-use platforms that produce clean energy in the ocean use all space for aquaculture use wind waves and Sun and they are also regulating marine transport and wild fishing and we came up with some designs our engineering team let me tell you that more than 200 Sciences scientists were working on all this and our university was managing the economic size of the study the economic site of retrieving the value of the all these resources and making management plans and deciding where to allocate and where to place this option offshore ocean platforms and if you look at this PowerPoint you will see that the cost-benefit analysis of the placement and the design of these offshore resources showed one crucial thing that market benefits exist because you serve the energy that you produce the clean energy from waves and the Sun in the sea but huge non market benefits exist as well benefits that have to do with less intrusion of the environment less intrusion on marine biodiversity less co2 emissions but the peakers value off all and I’ve lost the slide about that but let’s see I can tell you the biggest value of all was the value of correct placement of the offshore platform the correct management of ocean space the non market value of not destroying ocean space like we did on our land is ten times as big as any financial and non-financial environmental benefits that come in from huge in

in the sea so what is important to understand is usually environmental economical you cannot measure that makes the change and we can measure it now this is my message hidden benefits and cost that are not traded in any market are measurable now and we’ve been measuring of this and we’ve been deciding and changing all over the world one other value that is crucial for this measurement and this is the way you discount the benefits in the future for long run projects I’m going to go away I can never be economic with regards to my time by showing you the map of the world and where we have actually applied projects the last 20 years my team has applied projects all over Europe but all over the world managing natural resources and building clean energy technology constructions thank you for your patience

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